We reported in July about global coffee prices escalating to new highs. More recently in November 2024, coffee prices reached levels last breached in 1977 and nearly hit the all-time record of $3.356/pound. In reading various reports and speaking with our brokers and importers, there are many reasons for this rapid increase which we’ll get into shortly. Furthermore, we are optimistic that prices will soon be decreasing significantly. We are hoping for some relief from the record prices, but uncertain of how long it might last.
The “C” price reached $3.2605 on November 29, 2024. Up from $2.409 on July 18, 2024.
Dry weather globally is continuing towards the end of 2024 causing harvest estimates to decrease. A worrying sign is the damage that drier weather has caused to Brazilian coffee trees and how long they will take to return to health and normal production levels when the normal rainfall patterns resume.
Vietnam, a large coffee producer, is seeing exports decrease and crop estimates for 2023/2024 to fall to the lowest levels in 4 years and the 2024/2025 crop to be lower still.
Coffee Inventories are at historical lows. Thus, coffee buyers and roasters cannot get enough coffees for their needs and are scrambling to buy coffees while producers are holding on to limited stocks which are low or non-existent due to earlier selling and smaller harvest. Other regulatory and buying pattern changes are also leading to pricing disruptions and uncertainty.
The European Union has delayed a controversial regulation surrounding deforestation claims or the “EUDR” that limits the types of coffee to those that meet the deforestation standards for import into the EU. Originally scheduled to come into effect in 2024, they have been delayed for 12 months and the impact on coffee flows from producing nations to consuming nations remains uncertain. Global coffee consumption continues to increase in many markets, especially in China, leading to demand pressures on already small crops.
The impact of much discussed US tariffs on imported goods, including the possibility of coffees, either on all or select origins, is creating uncertainty that is expected to hang over prices while the next US administration assumes power. If the US Trade Representative assesses tariffs on imported coffees, then many of our sources expect higher prices.
As always, our job in times like these is to maintain prices as much as we can, while giving you the best cup of coffee we can. Thanks for sticking with us, and we’ll do our best to always keep you up to date on the latest global coffee economy.